FedWatcher. Policy Monitor
FOMC · latest read

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01Overview

The latest statement, scored four ways — every figure traced to its source.

Tone score
−1 0 +1
Dovish Neutral Hawkish
+0.31 +0.04 · vs prior release
Next-move bucket
55% Hold · 0 bps
−50 −25 0 +25 +50
bps · next meeting Jun 17 · FOMC
Core CPI · YoY
—%
—
FRED · CPILFESL —
Unemployment
—%
—
FRED · UNRATE —

Section weights

How much each part of a release moves the composite tone score. Loaded from the database, recalibrated against past FOMC moves.

See the full method →
Statement
Fed guidance
45%
Inflation
25%
Labor
15%
General
15%

02Breakdown

The Committee’s next move, as a full distribution of probabilities.

BucketProbability

Signal Divergence

Tone-implied path vs market proxy · basis points
Tone > Market Tone < Market
— T = current meeting · E = next meeting horizon

03Data

Pick any table from the pills to see its chart and rows. Click any row for the full record.

Core CPI · Unemployment · 2Y Yield

Monthly observations · FRED
— —

04Method

How a Fed release becomes a forecast — four stages, every figure traceable back to the underlying data.

From the publication of a Fed statement to the projection on this page — the four stages that translate the Committee's language into a rate-move forecast.

For the curious

The three agents, how each release is scored section by section, why the weights live in the database, and the statistical model behind the forecast.

05Feed

Live ingestion target. FOMC statements flow through the analyst agent and accumulate here.

0 docs

06Run it yourself

This page is the read-only deployment. The whole pipeline — scrapers, analyst, strategist — runs on your own machine.

Clone the repository and python run.py setup writes the environment, builds the database and starts the agents. Retune the analyst's section weights, ingest documents by hand, or point the scraper at the synthetic FakeFed fixture site to watch a statement travel end to end.

GitHub