FedWatcher estimates a cautious hold with hawkish inflation language.

The dashboard combines Fed statement tone, CPI, unemployment, and rate proxies to estimate probabilities over rate-move buckets instead of a simple hike/no-hike output.

Outcomes: -50, -25, 0, +25, +50 bps FRED: CPILFESL, UNRATE FastAPI backend target Educational FakeFed mode planned

Rate Move Probabilities

-25

14%

55%

+25

26%

+50

Macro Context

CPI

High

Labor

Solid

Rates

Tight

Placeholder values until FRED ingestion and model runs are wired into FastAPI.

Document Feed

Latest first

FOMC statement May 7, 2026 - tone +0.31 - source ready

FOMC statement March 18, 2026 - synthetic FakeFed fixture

Minutes Planned ingestion target

Project Brief

FedWatcher monitors Federal Reserve communication, extracts policy tone with an LLM-backed analyst agent, joins macro data from FRED, and presents rate-move probabilities through a FastAPI-backed dashboard.

This static page is the brief homepage/dashboard placeholder for `fedwatcher.ellep.it` while the API and Streamlit/FastAPI app are implemented.

Educational mode
FakeFed source selection and statement writing will be admin-only.